Freakonomics

Freakonomics is the work of Harvard graduate Steven D Levitt and journalist Stephen J Dubner. Levitt is known chiefly as an economist with a speciality in crime; his brand of statistical analysis has been used to detect sumo wrestlers fixing their bouts, and correlate the drop in crime in US cities to the passing of pro-abortion legislation.

Levitt has been identified as one of the greatest unorthodox thinkers in the field of economics. We know this because Dubner never wastes an opportunity to tell us. This somewhat lightweight book is peppered with endorsements and tributes to Levitt's work, to the distraction of its narrative. The work itself should act as the book's promotion, not an italicised preface quoted from The New York Times or the Wall Street Journal before each chapter.

In fact, the book has disappointingly little of consequence to say. Dubner's writing style is anecdotal, verbose and pally which contributes to an overriding feeling that the book has too much padding and not enough hard evidence of statistical trends. The science just isn't there in most instances to backup some of the grandiose generalisations – plenty of circumstantial evidence but precious few facts.

The book opens with Senator Stetson Kennedy infiltrating the Klu Klux Klan back in the 40s, and by putting their secret codes and customs into the public domain through Superman radio broadcasts, he effectively ridiculed and dismantled their organisation. His actions were laudable but have absolutely no bearing in the tale Dubner is trying to tell. Furthermore, to have the lion's share of a chapter devoted to something that has no traction with Freakonomics makes no sense and undermines Levitt and Dubner's position.

Dubner then goes on to show how High School teachers in Chicago were deliberately altering their pupils test scores to ensure year-end graduation targets were reached. The teachers would alter multiple choice exam papers, but intriguingly they would only alter a sequence of answers towards the end of the paper. Herein lies a fundamental problem. Levitt's strategy of catching the cheats only works in a specific circumstance – when the teachers are lazy and stick to a set pattern of correcting particular questions over and over. In fact, any teacher with a semblance of intelligence would do exactly the opposite! Why signpost your handiwork when it would be so much easier to cover your tracks by scattering your modifications throughout the paper where it would be impossible to detect a trend?

In a later chapter the authors explain how an estate agent may not always be acting in their client's best interest. An estate agent is motivated by making sales, and by coercing the vendor to sell for an offer substantially below list price may result in the estate agent only losing a very small percentage of the commission but the vendor losing tens of thousands of pounds. This makes eminent sense, and it is therefore wise to consider all viable options before being rail-roaded by a sweet-talking estate agent. But what the authors neglect to mention is that vendors have an advantage over the estate agent in the first instance. The agent may be more finely attuned to the direction of the market, but the vendor has a much greater appreciation of the value of their own property and it is they who should set the initial list price. Think about it for a second – you have lived in the same property in the same road for a decade; you have seen the properties around you sell or not sell, you know how much the properties sold (or didn't sell) for. The agent on the other hand has a territory of a few square miles to cover and can't possibly have the same in-depth knowledge of your particular street.

The jewel in the crown of the book is the controversial idea that crime rates dropped subsequent to abortion legislation being passed in the America. Not instantly of course, but follow the time-line – sixteen years to twenty years later, those children who would have been born into deprived neighbourhoods to mothers who didn't want a children at that time, would have been committing the crimes. As they weren't born, the crimes didn't happen. Whilst possibly distasteful to some, it is certainly compelling. There are other factors at play too not mentioned by the authors – during the same period the world has seen extraordinary change, and the standard of living has improved beyond recognition for many. Consumer goods once costing hundreds of pounds are suddenly worth a fraction of that and they become affordable to all. There is less reason therefore for theft, burglary and mugging since most objects are easily attainable. On that basis the crime rates will drop.

The book zings along and was easily read on three journeys to or from work during my commute. Its chummy nature make it difficult to dislike, but its poor application of statistics and science renders the opposite effect. In the end reconciliation of the book's content against the hype is elusive.